HRSA NCHWA · December 2025

U.S. Physician Shortage Index

The United States is projected to face a shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038. Rural communities face gaps exceeding 58%. This index maps where capacity is needed most.

Source: HRSA National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, Physician Workforce: Projections, 2023–2038, December 2025.

FTE Shortage by 2038

141,160

HRSA 2025 projection

Active U.S. Physicians

1,010,892

AAMC 2024

Rural Gap

58%

nonmetro adequacy gap

IMLC-Addressable

77%

of shortage reachable via compact

Shortage by State

Physician shortage gap as % of estimated need. Hover any state for detail.

Shortage gap:

≥50%

40–50%

30–40%

20–30%

10–20%

<10%

Phase 1 target

Hover a state to see shortage details

The Civil Duty Solution

One additional clinical week per year from U.S. physicians generates meaningful, compounding capacity. SANNEXUS coordinates and credentials Civil Duty physicians to deploy where gaps are worst.

Participation	Physicians	Annual FTE-Years	% of Shortage	Economic Value
5% (conservative)	50,545	1,053	0.75%	$337M/yr
10% (board lead)	101,089	2,106	1.49%	$674M/yr
15% (target)	151,634	3,159	2.24%	$1010M/yr
25% (aspirational)	252,723	5,265	3.73%	$1690M/yr

At 10% participation, Civil Duty generates 2,106 FTE physician-years — equivalent to graduating 11 additional medical school classes worth of capacity, annually. Over 5 years at 15%: 15,795 cumulative FTE-years.

By Specialty

Service Line	FTE Gap	% Total
Primary Care 73% adequacy	70,610	50%
Psychiatry / Mental Health Severe, fastest-growing	18,000	12.8%
OB/GYN Moderate-severe	9,000	6.4%
General Surgery Severe in rural	7,200	5.1%
Neurology Moderate	5,500	3.9%
Emergency Medicine Severe in rural	4,300	3%
Orthopedic Surgery Moderate	3,500	2.5%
Cardiothoracic Surgery 69% adequacy (31% shortage)	3,200	2.3%
Other Specialties (22) Various	19,850	14.1%

Highest-Gap States

WyomingWY

~900 FTE

57%

MontanaMT

~1,400 FTE

55%

West VirginiaWV

~1,800 FTE

52%

MississippiMS

~3,200 FTE

51%

South DakotaSD

~900 FTE

50%

ArkansasAR

~2,700 FTE

49%

North DakotaND

~800 FTE

48%

IdahoID

~1,000 FTE

47%

AlabamaAL

~2,900 FTE

46%

New MexicoNM

~1,300 FTE

45%

All States — Shortage Gap

State	Gap %	Est. FTE Gap	IMLC
WY Wyoming	57%	900	Member
MT Montana	55%	1,400	Member
WV West Virginia	52%	1,800	Member
MS Mississippi	51%	3,200	Member
SD South Dakota	50%	900	Member
AR Arkansas	49%	2,700	Member
ND North Dakota	48%	800	Member
ID Idaho	47%	1,000	Member
AL Alabama	46%	2,900	Member
NM New Mexico	45%	1,300	Member
OK Oklahoma	44%	2,400	Member
AK Alaska	44%	400	Member
LA Louisiana	43%	2,600	Member
KS Kansas	43%	1,200	Member
NE Nebraska	41%	1,100	Member
KY Kentucky	38%	2,200	Member
IA Iowa	36%	1,300	Member
MO Missouri	33%	1,700	Member
TN Tennessee	31%	2,800	Member
SC South Carolina	29%	2,100	Non-member
NV Nevada	29%	1,100	Member
GA Georgia	28%	4,100	Member
IN Indiana	27%	1,900	Member
NC North Carolina	26%	3,100	Member
MI Michigan	24%	2,400	Member
AZ Arizona	24%	2,100	Member
ME Maine	24%	500	Member
WI Wisconsin	23%	1,400	Member
TX Texas	22%	11,200	Member
OR Oregon	22%	1,000	Non-member
UT Utah	22%	900	Member
OH Ohio	21%	2,600	Member
MN Minnesota	20%	1,400	Member
HI Hawaii	20%	500	Member
PA Pennsylvania	19%	2,700	Member
CO Colorado	19%	1,200	Member
FL FloridaPhase 1	18%	9,600	Non-member
IL Illinois	18%	2,500	Member
VA Virginia	18%	1,700	Member
VT Vermont	18%	300	Member
WA Washington	17%	1,400	Member
NH New Hampshire	15%	400	Member
DE Delaware	14%	300	Member
RI Rhode Island	11%	250	Member
MD Maryland	10%	900	Member
CT Connecticut	9%	600	Member
NJ New Jersey	9%	900	Non-member
CA California	8%	8,300	Non-member
NY New York	7%	5,900	Non-member
MA Massachusetts	7%	700	Non-member

Be part of the solution

One week of Civil Duty per year. Credentialed in under 14 days. Deploy where patients need you most.

Join the Civil Duty network

For hospitals and health systems: request a pitch deck